Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 49.09%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Crawley Town had a probability of 24.37%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.65%) and 2-1 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.46%), while for a Crawley Town win it was 0-1 (8.56%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
