Newport County might have the home advantage in this fixture, but that does not mean they will be considered the favourites heading into Saturday.
The Exiles have struggled when it comes to finding the back of the net as of late, and considering the strong run that Carlisle United are enjoying they should be expected to win this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.46%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
-0.04) 
0.29) 
