SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newport County win with a probability of 43.46%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.34% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newport County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.46%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Carlisle United |
43.46% ( -0.04) | 26.2% ( -0.26) | 30.34% ( 0.29) |
| Both teams to score 51.98% ( 0.93) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.65% ( 1.13) | 52.35% ( -1.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.96% ( 0.96) | 74.04% ( -0.97) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.07% ( 0.48) | 23.93% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.84% ( 0.68) | 58.16% ( -0.68) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.33% ( 0.8) | 31.67% ( -0.8) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.92% ( 0.91) | 68.08% ( -0.91) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Carlisle United |
| 1-0 @ 10.83% ( -0.34) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 7.75% ( -0.13)3-1 @ 4.25% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.44% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 1.32% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.75% Total : 43.45% | 1-1 @ 12.46% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 7.58% ( -0.35)2-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.14)3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.2% | 0-1 @ 8.72% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 7.17% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 5.01% ( -0)1-3 @ 2.75% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.09)0-3 @ 1.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.82% Total : 30.34% |
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