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League Two | Gameweek 15
Oct 15, 2022 at 3pm UK
Brunton Park
DR

Carlisle
3 - 0
Doncaster

Guy (44'), Stretton (53', 66')
Huntington (47')
FT(HT: 1-0)

Clayton (26'), Williams (69')

Form, Standings, Stats

We said: Carlisle United 1-1 Doncaster Rovers

With the sides separated by just one place in the League Two table, it is clear that they are evenly-matched and so we think that they will cancel each other out here. Not only that, but Carlisle have made a habit of drawing games recently, so the same again is likely here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 42.2%. A win for Doncaster Rovers had a probability of 30.81% and a draw had a probability of 27%.

The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.65%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Doncaster Rovers win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.79%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.

Result
Carlisle UnitedDrawDoncaster Rovers
42.2% (0.052 0.05) 26.99% (0.010999999999999 0.01) 30.81% (-0.065000000000001 -0.07)
Both teams to score 49.79% (-0.060000000000002 -0.06)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
44.74% (-0.064 -0.06)55.26% (0.061 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
23.52% (-0.052 -0.05)76.48% (0.049999999999997 0.05)
Carlisle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.13% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)25.87% (0.0010000000000012 0)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.15% (-0.0020000000000024 -0)60.85% (-0.00099999999999767 -0)
Doncaster Rovers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
67.17% (-0.078999999999994 -0.08)32.83% (0.076999999999998 0.08)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
30.6% (-0.09 -0.09)69.4% (0.085999999999999 0.09)
Score Analysis
    Carlisle United 42.2%
    Doncaster Rovers 30.81%
    Draw 26.99%
Carlisle UnitedDrawDoncaster Rovers
1-0 @ 11.48% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-1 @ 8.65% (0.0020000000000007 0)
2-0 @ 7.76% (0.018 0.02)
3-1 @ 3.9% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-0 @ 3.5% (0.008 0.01)
3-2 @ 2.17% (-0.0049999999999999 -0)
4-1 @ 1.32%
4-0 @ 1.18% (0.0030000000000001 0)
Other @ 2.25%
Total : 42.2%
1-1 @ 12.79% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
0-0 @ 8.49% (0.02 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.82% (-0.0090000000000003 -0.01)
Other @ 0.89%
Total : 26.99%
0-1 @ 9.46% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-2 @ 7.12% (-0.013999999999999 -0.01)
0-2 @ 5.27% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
1-3 @ 2.65% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
0-3 @ 1.96% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.79% (-0.0069999999999999 -0.01)
Other @ 2.57%
Total : 30.81%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Hartlepool 1-3 Carlisle
Saturday, October 8 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Carlisle 0-0 Crewe
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Grimsby Town 1-2 Carlisle
Tuesday, September 27 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Newport 1-1 Carlisle
Saturday, September 24 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Carlisle 1-1 Fleetwood
Tuesday, September 20 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Carlisle 2-1 AFC Wimbledon
Saturday, September 17 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Doncaster 2-4 Barnsley
Tuesday, October 11 at 7pm in EFL Trophy
Last Game: Doncaster 1-1 Leyton Orient
Saturday, October 8 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Hartlepool 2-1 Doncaster
Tuesday, October 4 at 7.45pm in League Two
Last Game: Rochdale 1-2 Doncaster
Saturday, October 1 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Doncaster 4-1 Crawley
Saturday, September 24 at 3pm in League Two
Last Game: Lincoln 1-2 Doncaster
Tuesday, September 20 at 7pm in EFL Trophy


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