Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 44.3%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 29.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.96%) and 0-2 (8.02%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 1-0 (8.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Carlisle United would win this match.
-0.19) 
0.44) 
