SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 48.89%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 29.69% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.02%) and 2-0 (5.74%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (6.81%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Adelaide United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
48.89% ( 0.43) | 21.42% ( -0.07) | 29.69% ( -0.36) |
| Both teams to score 68.44% ( 0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.36% ( 0.13) | 30.63% ( -0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.04% ( 0.16) | 51.95% ( -0.15) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.84% ( 0.19) | 13.16% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 60.16% ( 0.37) | 39.84% ( -0.37) |
| Newcastle Jets Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.8% ( -0.14) | 21.19% ( 0.14) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.93% ( -0.21) | 54.07% ( 0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Newcastle Jets |
| 2-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 6.02% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 5.74% ( 0.04)1-0 @ 5.66% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.67% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 3.88% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 3.05% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 2.37% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 1.97% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.03)4-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.01)5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.24% Total : 48.89% | 1-1 @ 8.77% ( -0.04) 2-2 @ 6.9% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 2.41% ( 0)Other @ 0.54% Total : 21.42% | 1-2 @ 6.81% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 4.33% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 3.57% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.52% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.05)0-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.39% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.37% ( -0.02)3-4 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 2.69% Total : 29.69% |
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