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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Adelaide United win with a probability of 52.34%. A win for Wellington Phoenix had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 21.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an Adelaide United win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.4%) and 2-0 (6.37%). The likeliest Wellington Phoenix win was 1-2 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
52.34% ( -0.51) | 21.11% ( -0.05) | 26.54% ( 0.55) |
| Both teams to score 66.92% ( 0.76) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.47% ( 0.76) | 31.53% ( -0.76) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.98% ( 0.89) | 53.01% ( -0.89) |
| Adelaide United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.57% ( 0.11) | 12.43% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.66% ( 0.23) | 38.34% ( -0.23) |
| Wellington Phoenix Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.42% ( 0.77) | 23.58% ( -0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.35% ( 1.11) | 57.64% ( -1.11) |
| Score Analysis |
| Adelaide United | Draw | Wellington Phoenix |
| 2-1 @ 9.2% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 6.4% ( -0.04)2-0 @ 6.37% ( -0.21)1-0 @ 6.11% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 4.62% ( 0.08)3-0 @ 4.43% ( -0.13)4-1 @ 3.34% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.05)4-0 @ 2.31% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 1.39% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.16% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 0.96% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.64% Total : 52.34% | 1-1 @ 8.83% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.08)0-0 @ 2.93% ( -0.12)3-3 @ 2.23% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.47% Total : 21.11% | 1-2 @ 6.38% ( 0.05) 0-1 @ 4.23% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.11)1-3 @ 3.07% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.47% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.07)1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.86% Total : 26.54% |
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