SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 63.65%. A draw had a probability of 20.2% and a win for Colchester United had a probability of 16.19%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.49%), while for a Colchester United win it was 0-1 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AFC Wimbledon would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Colchester United |
63.65% ( 0.5) | 20.16% ( -0.15) | 16.19% ( -0.35) |
| Both teams to score 53.78% ( -0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.63% ( 0.02) | 41.36% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.24% ( 0.02) | 63.76% ( -0.02) |
| AFC Wimbledon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.66% ( 0.14) | 12.34% ( -0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.84% ( 0.3) | 38.16% ( -0.3) |
| Colchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.35% ( -0.42) | 38.64% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.61% ( -0.4) | 75.39% ( 0.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Wimbledon | Draw | Colchester United |
| 2-0 @ 10.43% ( 0.1) 1-0 @ 9.98% ( 0.05)2-1 @ 9.92% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.12)3-1 @ 6.92% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 3.81% ( 0.08)4-1 @ 3.62% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 3.29% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.72% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.52% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.56% Total : 63.64% | 1-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.06) 0-0 @ 4.77% ( -0)2-2 @ 4.72% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.14% Total : 20.16% | 0-1 @ 4.53% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 4.51% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.5% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.43% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.07% Total : 16.19% |
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