Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Wimbledon win with a probability of 69.13%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Newport County had a probability of 11.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Wimbledon win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.65%) and 2-1 (9.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.09%), while for a Newport County win it was 0-1 (4.36%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood.
-0.62) 
0.25) 
