SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 64.13%. A draw had a probability of 20.1% and a win for Arouca had a probability of 15.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 0-2 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.18%) and 1-2 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.48%), while for an Arouca win it was 1-0 (4.53%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
15.78% ( 0.09) | 20.08% ( 0.06) | 64.13% ( -0.15) |
| Both teams to score 53.08% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.18% ( -0.09) | 41.82% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.78% ( -0.09) | 64.22% ( 0.09) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.56% ( 0.06) | 39.44% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.86% ( 0.06) | 76.13% ( -0.06) |
| Benfica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.66% ( -0.07) | 12.34% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.83% ( -0.14) | 38.16% ( 0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Benfica |
| 1-0 @ 4.53% ( 0.03) 2-1 @ 4.41% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 2.11% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 1.43% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.94% Total : 15.78% | 1-1 @ 9.48% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.61% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1% ( 0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 20.08% | 0-2 @ 10.65% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.01)1-2 @ 9.91% ( 0)0-3 @ 7.43% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 6.91% ( -0.02)0-4 @ 3.89% ( -0.03)1-4 @ 3.62% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 3.22% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)0-5 @ 1.63% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.51% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.5% Total : 64.13% |
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