SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 41.12%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 32.26% and a draw had a probability of 26.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.62%) and 0-2 (7.34%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (9.29%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
32.26% ( 0.02) | 26.62% ( 0.01) | 41.12% ( -0.03) |
| Both teams to score 51.43% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.59% ( -0.05) | 53.41% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.06% ( -0.05) | 74.94% ( 0.04) |
| Arouca Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.13% ( -0.01) | 30.87% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.84% ( -0.02) | 67.16% ( 0.02) |
| Famalicao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.4% ( -0.04) | 25.6% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.52% ( -0.06) | 60.48% ( 0.05) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arouca | Draw | Famalicao |
| 1-0 @ 9.29% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.44% ( 0)2-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.91% ( -0)3-0 @ 2.14% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.99% ( -0)Other @ 3.04% Total : 32.26% | 1-1 @ 12.65% 0-0 @ 7.9% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 5.07% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.9% ( -0)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.62% | 0-1 @ 10.76% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.62% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 7.34% ( -0)1-3 @ 3.92% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 3.33% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.3% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.33% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.14% ( -0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 41.11% |
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