While both sides have been far from impressive this season, it is difficult to make much of a case for the visitors, who have not earned a single point on the road this season and have not won an away match since March.
Arouca showed real fighting spirit to come back from two goals down against Rio Ave last week, and we feel they can follow that up with another positive result in this one.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gil Vicente win with a probability of 37.86%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gil Vicente win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.4%) and 0-2 (6.09%). The likeliest Arouca win was 1-0 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
-0.03) 
0) 
