SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 44.42%. A win for Ajax had a probability of 34.8% and a draw had a probability of 20.8%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 7.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.49%) and 3-2 (5.05%). The likeliest Ajax win was 1-2 (6.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.58%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Ajax |
44.42% ( 0.08) | 20.78% | 34.8% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 73.64% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 75.05% ( -0.03) | 24.95% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 55.15% ( -0.04) | 44.85% ( 0.03) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.58% ( 0.01) | 12.42% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 61.67% ( 0.03) | 38.33% ( -0.03) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.08% ( -0.05) | 15.91% ( 0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.84% ( -0.09) | 45.16% ( 0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.49% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 5.05% ( 0)2-0 @ 4.3% ( 0.01)1-0 @ 4.12% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.99% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.87% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 2.63% ( 0)4-3 @ 1.61% ( -0)4-0 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.2% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.1% ( 0)Other @ 3.6% Total : 44.42% | 1-1 @ 7.58% ( 0) 2-2 @ 7.26% ( -0)3-3 @ 3.09% ( -0)0-0 @ 1.98% ( 0)Other @ 0.87% Total : 20.78% | 1-2 @ 6.96% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 4.45% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 4.27% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 3.63% 0-2 @ 3.34% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 2.05% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)3-4 @ 1.42% ( -0)0-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.73% Total : 34.8% |
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