SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 42.04%. A win for Manchester United had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.67%) and 2-0 (5.69%). The likeliest Manchester United win was 1-2 (7.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Manchester United |
42.04% ( 0.04) | 23.16% ( 0.02) | 34.79% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 64.24% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.9% ( -0.11) | 37.1% ( 0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.7% ( -0.13) | 59.3% ( 0.13) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.86% ( -0.03) | 18.14% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.89% ( -0.05) | 49.11% ( 0.06) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.48% ( -0.08) | 21.52% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.42% ( -0.13) | 54.58% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Manchester United |
| 2-1 @ 8.74% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 6.67% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 5.69% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.97% 3-2 @ 3.82% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.24% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 2.12% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.63% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.38% ( 0)Other @ 3.79% Total : 42.04% | 1-1 @ 10.23% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.71% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.9% ( 0.02)3-3 @ 1.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.36% Total : 23.16% | 1-2 @ 7.86% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.61% ( 0)1-3 @ 4.03% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.44% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.36% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.32% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 2.73% Total : 34.79% |
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