SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester United win with a probability of 64.85%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Aston Villa had a probability of 15.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester United win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.38%), while for an Aston Villa win it was 0-1 (4.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Manchester United would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
64.85% ( -0.04) | 19.87% ( 0.04) | 15.28% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 52.6% ( -0.14) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.15% ( -0.19) | 41.84% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.75% ( -0.19) | 64.25% ( 0.19) |
| Manchester United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.84% ( -0.07) | 12.15% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.24% ( -0.14) | 37.76% ( 0.14) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.88% ( -0.11) | 40.12% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.24% ( -0.1) | 76.76% ( 0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Manchester United | Draw | Aston Villa |
| 2-0 @ 10.82% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 10.27% ( 0.06)2-1 @ 9.89% 3-0 @ 7.61% ( 0)3-1 @ 6.95% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.01% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.66% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.17% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.69% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.67% ( -0.01)5-1 @ 1.54% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.55% Total : 64.84% | 1-1 @ 9.38% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 4.87% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 4.52% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 0.97% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.13% Total : 19.87% | 0-1 @ 4.45% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.29% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.03% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.31% ( -0)Other @ 1.83% Total : 15.28% |
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