Having returned to winning ways in Europe on Thursday, Atalanta are due a Serie A victory after four matches without one, with Gasperini's willingness to freshen his side possibly proving pivotal in Sunday's fixture. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 39.05%. A win for Fiorentina had a probability of 34.7% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.7%). The likeliest Fiorentina win was 0-1 (9.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.48%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.

Result
Atalanta BC	Draw	Fiorentina
39.05% ( 0.07)	26.25% ( -0.02)	34.7% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 53.21% (

0.04)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

48.6% (

0.06)

51.4% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

26.78% (

0.05)

73.21% (

-0.05)

Atalanta BC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.21% (

0.06)

25.78% (

-0.07)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

39.27% (

0.09)

60.73% (

-0.09)

Fiorentina Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.7% (

-0.01)

28.3% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.97% (

-0.01)

64.02% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Atalanta BC 39.05%

Fiorentina 34.7%

Draw 26.25%

Atalanta BC	Draw	Fiorentina
1-0 @ 9.89% ( -0) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.7% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.82% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.41% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.41% Total : 39.05%	1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.3% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.34% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 1.02% ( 0) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.25%	0-1 @ 9.21% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 7.88% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.81% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 3.32% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.45% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.25% ( 0) 1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0) Other @ 2.74% Total : 34.7%