SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 58.13%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Elfsborg had a probability of 18.61%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.47%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11%) and 2-1 (9.74%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.04%), while for a Elfsborg win it was 0-1 (6.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Elfsborg |
58.13% ( -0.18) | 23.26% ( -0.05) | 18.61% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 48.66% ( 0.56) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.36% ( 0.54) | 50.64% ( -0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.45% ( 0.47) | 72.55% ( -0.47) |
| Athletic Bilbao Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.85% ( 0.13) | 17.15% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 52.61% ( 0.22) | 47.39% ( -0.22) |
| Elfsborg Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.73% ( 0.59) | 41.27% ( -0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.2% ( 0.51) | 77.8% ( -0.51) |
| Score Analysis |
| Athletic Bilbao | Draw | Elfsborg |
| 1-0 @ 12.47% ( -0.22) 2-0 @ 11% ( -0.14)2-1 @ 9.74% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.06)3-1 @ 5.72% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 2.85% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.53% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 1.12% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 2.7% Total : 58.12% | 1-1 @ 11.04% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( -0.15)2-2 @ 4.31% ( 0.08)Other @ 0.83% Total : 23.25% | 0-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 2.77% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 1.27% ( 0.04)Other @ 1.98% Total : 18.61% |
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