Atletico are a tough team to beat at the Metropolitano, and with Valencia low on confidence following three defeats in four games, we think that Atleti will ultimately do enough to add three more points to their tally and maintain their unbeaten start to the new season.
Read more.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Madrid win with a probability of 65.46%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Valencia had a probability of 13.68%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Madrid win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.72%) and 2-1 (9.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.86%), while for a Valencia win it was 0-1 (5.07%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atletico Madrid would win this match.
-0.15) 
0.05) 
