SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Feyenoord win with a probability of 41.47%. A win for AZ Alkmaar had a probability of 35.02% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Feyenoord win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.74%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7%) and 0-2 (5.8%). The likeliest AZ Alkmaar win was 2-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Feyenoord would win this match.
| Result | ||
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Feyenoord |
35.02% ( -0.38) | 23.51% ( 0.15) | 41.47% ( 0.23) |
| Both teams to score 63% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.26% ( -0.83) | 38.74% ( 0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.95% ( -0.88) | 61.05% ( 0.89) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.84% ( -0.58) | 22.16% ( 0.58) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.45% ( -0.88) | 55.55% ( 0.88) |
| Feyenoord Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.93% ( -0.25) | 19.07% ( 0.25) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.34% ( -0.41) | 50.66% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| AZ Alkmaar | Draw | Feyenoord |
| 2-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 6.37% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 4.8% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.08)3-2 @ 3.31% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.41% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.5% ( -0.06)4-2 @ 1.25% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.54% Total : 35.02% | 1-1 @ 10.55% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.07)0-0 @ 4.23% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.32% Total : 23.51% | 1-2 @ 8.74% ( 0.06) 0-1 @ 7% ( 0.22)0-2 @ 5.8% ( 0.14)1-3 @ 4.83% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 3.64% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.21% ( 0.05)1-4 @ 2% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.51% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 1.33% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.41% Total : 41.47% |
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