AZ's dominance in this fixture points to a comfortable victory for them come the sound of the final whistle. While we expect anything but a straightforward affair here, we can see the home side carrying the day, albeit in narrow fashion.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 67.18%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 14.16%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 1-0 (9.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.73%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (4.04%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 3.9% likelihood.
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