SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 52.2%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 24.26% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.73%) and 0-2 (8.68%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-0 (6.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 0-1 win for AZ Alkmaar in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for AZ Alkmaar.
| Result | ||
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
24.26% ( -1.52) | 23.54% ( -0.11) | 52.2% ( 1.63) |
| Both teams to score 55.73% ( -1.22) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.81% ( -0.88) | 45.19% ( 0.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.47% ( -0.85) | 67.54% ( 0.85) |
| Vitesse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.39% ( -1.71) | 32.61% ( 1.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.85% ( -1.97) | 69.15% ( 1.97) |
| AZ Alkmaar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.69% ( 0.28) | 17.31% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 52.33% ( 0.49) | 47.67% ( -0.49) |
| Score Analysis |
| Vitesse | Draw | AZ Alkmaar |
| 1-0 @ 6.33% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 6.22% ( -0.3)2-0 @ 3.54% ( -0.21)3-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.23)3-2 @ 2.04% ( -0.18)3-0 @ 1.32% ( -0.14)Other @ 2.49% Total : 24.26% | 1-1 @ 11.09% 0-0 @ 5.65% ( 0.21)2-2 @ 5.45% ( -0.21)3-3 @ 1.19% ( -0.09)Other @ 0.16% Total : 23.53% | 0-1 @ 9.9% ( 0.46) 1-2 @ 9.73% ( 0.09)0-2 @ 8.68% ( 0.48)1-3 @ 5.69% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 5.08% ( 0.32)2-3 @ 3.19% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.49% ( 0.07)0-4 @ 2.23% ( 0.16)2-4 @ 1.4% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.82% Total : 52.2% |
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