Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bahia win with a probability of 38.47%. A win for Atletico Mineiro had a probability of 33.31% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bahia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.99%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Atletico Mineiro win was 0-1 (10.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bahia would win this match.
-0.1) 
0.06) 
