SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 65.49%. A draw had a probability of 18.3% and a win for Changchun Yatai had a probability of 16.23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 3-1 (7.61%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.05%), while for a Changchun Yatai win it was 1-2 (4.48%). The actual scoreline of 8-1 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
65.49% ( -0.02) | 18.28% ( 0.01) | 16.23% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 60.93% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.81% ( -0.04) | 32.19% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.22% ( -0.04) | 53.78% ( 0.05) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.76% ( -0.01) | 9.24% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.76% ( -0.03) | 31.24% ( 0.04) |
| Changchun Yatai Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.13% ( -0.01) | 32.87% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.56% ( -0.01) | 69.44% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Changchun Yatai |
| 2-1 @ 9.58% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.61% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 7.61% ( -0)1-0 @ 7.23% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 6.84% ( -0)4-1 @ 4.53% ( -0)3-2 @ 4.23% ( -0)4-0 @ 4.07% ( -0)4-2 @ 2.52% ( -0)5-1 @ 2.16% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.94% ( -0)5-2 @ 1.2% ( -0)4-3 @ 0.94% ( -0)Other @ 4.03% Total : 65.49% | 1-1 @ 8.05% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.33% 0-0 @ 3.04% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0)Other @ 0.29% Total : 18.28% | 1-2 @ 4.48% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.98% ( -0)0-2 @ 1.88% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.66% ( 0)Other @ 2.86% Total : 16.23% |
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