SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 57.17%. A win for St Pauli had a probability of 22.49% and a draw had a probability of 20.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.22%) and 3-1 (6.9%). The likeliest St Pauli win was 1-2 (5.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Borussia Dortmund in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Borussia Dortmund.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | St Pauli |
57.17% ( -1.33) | 20.35% ( 0.07) | 22.49% ( 1.26) |
| Both teams to score 64.85% ( 1.65) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.81% ( 1.33) | 32.18% ( -1.33) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.22% ( 1.54) | 53.78% ( -1.54) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.71% ( 0.06) | 11.29% ( -0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.08% ( 0.13) | 35.92% ( -0.13) |
| St Pauli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.11% ( 1.82) | 26.89% ( -1.82) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.8% ( 2.33) | 62.2% ( -2.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | St Pauli |
| 2-1 @ 9.49% ( -0.14) 2-0 @ 7.22% ( -0.49)3-1 @ 6.9% ( -0.09)1-0 @ 6.62% ( -0.47)3-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.34)3-2 @ 4.53% ( 0.17)4-1 @ 3.76% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 2.86% ( -0.18)4-2 @ 2.47% ( 0.1)5-1 @ 1.64% ( -0.01)5-0 @ 1.25% ( -0.08)4-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.1)5-2 @ 1.08% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.02% Total : 57.17% | 1-1 @ 8.7% ( -0.15) 2-2 @ 6.23% ( 0.22)0-0 @ 3.04% ( -0.22)3-3 @ 1.98% ( 0.17)Other @ 0.4% Total : 20.35% | 1-2 @ 5.71% ( 0.19) 0-1 @ 3.99% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.23)0-2 @ 2.62% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 2.5% ( 0.2)0-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.09)Other @ 3.79% Total : 22.49% |
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