SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 59.36%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Sturm Graz had a probability of 19.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.28%) and 1-0 (9.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.83%), while for a Sturm Graz win it was 1-2 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Sturm Graz |
59.36% ( 6.61) | 21.15% ( -2.07) | 19.48% ( -4.54) |
| Both teams to score 57% ( 0.51) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.69% ( 3.75) | 40.3% ( -3.75) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.32% ( 3.76) | 62.67% ( -3.76) |
| Borussia Dortmund Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.75% ( 3.44) | 13.25% ( -3.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.97% ( 6.55) | 40.02% ( -6.55) |
| Sturm Graz Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.7% ( -2.1) | 34.3% ( 2.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29% ( -2.32) | 71% ( 2.32) |
| Score Analysis |
| Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Sturm Graz |
| 2-1 @ 9.93% ( 0.17) 2-0 @ 9.28% ( 0.67)1-0 @ 9.18% ( -0.44)3-1 @ 6.69% ( 0.87)3-0 @ 6.25% ( 1.12)3-2 @ 3.58% ( 0.28)4-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.78)4-0 @ 3.16% ( 0.86)4-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.33)5-1 @ 1.37% ( 0.43)5-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.46)Other @ 3.44% Total : 59.36% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( -1.07) 2-2 @ 5.32% ( -0.22)0-0 @ 4.54% ( -0.83)3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.19% Total : 21.15% | 1-2 @ 5.26% ( -0.92) 0-1 @ 4.86% ( -1.23)0-2 @ 2.6% ( -0.85)2-3 @ 1.9% ( -0.19)1-3 @ 1.88% ( -0.46)0-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.38)Other @ 2.06% Total : 19.48% |
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