SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 44.41%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.53%). The likeliest Bahia win was 0-1 (7.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bragantino would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bragantino | Draw | Bahia |
44.41% ( -0.2) | 25.31% ( 0.05) | 30.28% ( 0.15) |
| Both teams to score 54.8% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.33% ( -0.16) | 48.66% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.22% ( -0.15) | 70.78% ( 0.14) |
| Bragantino Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.1% ( -0.16) | 21.89% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.85% ( -0.25) | 55.15% ( 0.25) |
| Bahia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.17% ( 0.02) | 29.83% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.08% ( 0.03) | 65.91% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bragantino | Draw | Bahia |
| 1-0 @ 9.92% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.11% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 7.53% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 4.61% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 3.82% ( -0.03)3-2 @ 2.79% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.75% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.45% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 1.06% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 44.41% | 1-1 @ 12% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.04)2-2 @ 5.51% ( -0.01)3-3 @ 1.13% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.14% Total : 25.31% | 0-1 @ 7.9% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.26% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 4.78% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.27% Total : 30.28% |
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