Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brisbane Roar win with a probability of 45.57%. A win for Newcastle Jets had a probability of 31.58% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brisbane Roar win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.88%) and 2-0 (6.18%). The likeliest Newcastle Jets win was 1-2 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.08%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Brisbane Roar would win this match.
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