SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerro win with a probability of 38.46%. A win for Montevideo Wanderers had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerro win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (7.65%) and 2-1 (7.47%). The likeliest Montevideo Wanderers win was 0-1 (12.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Cerro | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
38.46% ( -1.37) | 29.98% ( 0.17) | 31.56% ( 1.2) |
| Both teams to score 41.81% ( -0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.69% ( -0.27) | 65.31% ( 0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.89% ( -0.19) | 84.11% ( 0.19) |
| Cerro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.07% ( -0.98) | 32.93% ( 0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.49% ( -1.11) | 69.51% ( 1.11) |
| Montevideo Wanderers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.33% ( 0.77) | 37.67% ( -0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.56% ( 0.74) | 74.44% ( -0.74) |
| Score Analysis |
| Cerro | Draw | Montevideo Wanderers |
| 1-0 @ 13.77% ( -0.23) 2-0 @ 7.65% ( -0.34)2-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.17)3-0 @ 2.83% ( -0.21)3-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.14)3-2 @ 1.35% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.62% Total : 38.46% | 1-1 @ 13.45% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 12.4% ( 0.13)2-2 @ 3.65% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.47% Total : 29.97% | 0-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.37) 1-2 @ 6.57% ( 0.16)0-2 @ 5.91% ( 0.3)1-3 @ 2.14% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.72% Total : 31.56% |
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