SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chaves win with a probability of 43.96%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.4% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chaves win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.04%) and 2-0 (7.6%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (8.21%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.18%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Chaves | Draw | Casa Pia |
43.96% ( 0.32) | 25.64% ( -0.05) | 30.4% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 53.79% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.99% ( 0.11) | 50.01% ( -0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.01% ( 0.09) | 71.99% ( -0.09) |
| Chaves Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.32% ( 0.2) | 22.68% ( -0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.68% ( 0.29) | 56.33% ( -0.29) |
| Casa Pia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.57% ( -0.13) | 30.43% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.37% ( -0.16) | 66.63% ( 0.16) |
| Score Analysis |
| Chaves | Draw | Casa Pia |
| 1-0 @ 10.23% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.03)2-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.06)3-1 @ 4.47% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.76% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.39% ( 0.03)4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.16% Total : 43.95% | 1-1 @ 12.18% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( -0.03)2-2 @ 5.38% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.06% ( 0)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.64% | 0-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 7.25% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 4.88% ( -0.06)1-3 @ 2.87% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.13% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 1.94% ( -0.03)Other @ 3.12% Total : 30.4% |
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