Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crewe Alexandra win with a probability of 40.31%. A win for Gillingham had a probability of 32.83% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (7.23%). The likeliest Gillingham win was 0-1 (9.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.75%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crewe Alexandra would win this match.
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