Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cuiaba win with a probability of 50.76%. A draw had a probability of 25.4% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 23.88%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cuiaba win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.54%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.03%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (7.69%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood.
-0.07) 
0.03) 
