SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 55.91%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 22.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.22%) and 2-0 (8.19%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 1-2 (5.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for De Graafschap in this match.
| Result | ||
| De Graafschap | Draw | Jong AZ |
55.91% ( -0.09) | 21.59% ( 0.01) | 22.5% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 60.24% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 61.79% ( 0.02) | 38.21% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 39.52% ( 0.02) | 60.48% ( -0.03) |
| De Graafschap Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.39% ( -0.02) | 13.6% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.26% ( -0.04) | 40.74% ( 0.04) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.73% ( 0.08) | 30.27% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.55% ( 0.09) | 66.45% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| De Graafschap | Draw | Jong AZ |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0) 1-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 8.19% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 6.51% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.45% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 3.89% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.25% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.72% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.94% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.3% ( -0)5-0 @ 1.08% ( -0)Other @ 3.58% Total : 55.91% | 1-1 @ 9.82% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.12% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.55% ( 0)Other @ 0.25% Total : 21.59% | 1-2 @ 5.87% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 4.92% ( 0)0-2 @ 2.94% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.34% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.94% Total : 22.5% |
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