SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 46.02%. A win for Penarol had a probability of 28.27% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.18%) and 2-0 (8.21%). The likeliest Penarol win was 0-1 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Penarol |
46.02% ( -0.41) | 25.72% ( 0.23) | 28.27% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 52.3% ( -0.59) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.62% ( -0.83) | 51.38% ( 0.83) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.8% ( -0.73) | 73.2% ( 0.73) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.7% ( -0.53) | 22.3% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 44.23% ( -0.81) | 55.77% ( 0.81) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.31% ( -0.29) | 32.69% ( 0.29) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.76% ( -0.33) | 69.24% ( 0.33) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 10.94% ( 0.19) 2-1 @ 9.18% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 8.21% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 4.59% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 4.11% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 2.57% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 1.72% ( -0.07)4-0 @ 1.54% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.21% Total : 46.02% | 1-1 @ 12.23% ( 0.11) 0-0 @ 7.29% ( 0.24)2-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 0.96% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.71% | 0-1 @ 8.15% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 6.84% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 4.56% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 2.55% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.04)0-3 @ 1.7% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.56% Total : 28.27% |
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