Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 60.88%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 17.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.09%), while for a Fleetwood Town win it was 0-1 (5.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
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