SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 44.26%. A win for Queens Park Rangers had a probability of 29% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Queens Park Rangers win was 0-1 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.67%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Queens Park Rangers |
44.26% ( -0.07) | 26.75% ( 0.03) | 29% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 49.62% ( -0.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.95% ( -0.09) | 55.06% ( 0.09) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.68% ( -0.08) | 76.32% ( 0.08) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.27% ( -0.08) | 24.74% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.71% ( -0.11) | 59.29% ( 0.11) |
| Queens Park Rangers Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.93% ( -0.01) | 34.07% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.25% ( -0.02) | 70.75% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Queens Park Rangers |
| 1-0 @ 11.77% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 8.22% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 4.12% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 3.83% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.22% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.44% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.46% Total : 44.26% | 1-1 @ 12.67% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.43% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 4.77% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.88% Total : 26.74% | 0-1 @ 9.07% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 6.83% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.89% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.45% 0-3 @ 1.75% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0)Other @ 2.3% Total : 29% |
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