SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Equatorial Guinea | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 2 | Nigeria | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Ivory Coast | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 4 | Guinea-Bissau | 3 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Equatorial Guinea win with a probability of 37.48%. A win for Malawi had a probability of 33.43% and a draw had a probability of 29.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Equatorial Guinea win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.2%). The likeliest Malawi win was 0-1 (11.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Equatorial Guinea in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Equatorial Guinea.
| Result | ||
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Malawi |
37.48% ( -0.36) | 29.09% ( -0.2) | 33.43% ( 0.56) |
| Both teams to score 44.47% ( 0.64) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 37.75% ( 0.74) | 62.25% ( -0.74) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 18.08% ( 0.54) | 81.92% ( -0.54) |
| Equatorial Guinea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.04% ( 0.16) | 31.96% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.58% ( 0.17) | 68.42% ( -0.18) |
| Malawi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.36% ( 0.79) | 34.64% ( -0.79) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.63% ( 0.83) | 71.37% ( -0.83) |
| Score Analysis |
| Equatorial Guinea | Draw | Malawi |
| 1-0 @ 12.62% ( -0.3) 2-1 @ 7.64% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 7.2% ( -0.14)3-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 2.74% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.54% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.83% Total : 37.47% | 1-1 @ 13.38% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 11.07% ( -0.31)2-2 @ 4.05% ( 0.1)Other @ 0.59% Total : 29.08% | 0-1 @ 11.73% ( -0.07) 1-2 @ 7.1% ( 0.14)0-2 @ 6.22% ( 0.1)1-3 @ 2.51% ( 0.1)0-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 1.43% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.23% Total : 33.42% |
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