Famalicao will head into Monday's tie looking to add to their impressive opening-day display against Braga and build a solid early-season form. The Vila Nova suffered a 1-0 loss when they visited the Estadio Jose Gomes last season and we predict that Estrela will hold out for a share of the spoils on Monday.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Famalicao win with a probability of 37.04%. A win for Estrela Amadora had a probability of 35.7% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Famalicao win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.63%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.04%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Estrela Amadora win was 1-0 (10.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Famalicao would win this match.
0.03) 
-0.21) 
