Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fluminense win with a probability of 37.39%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 33.67% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fluminense win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.67%) and 2-0 (7.15%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 0-1 (11.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Fluminense in this match.
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