Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fortaleza win with a probability of 61.01%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for America Mineiro had a probability of 16.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fortaleza win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.38%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.52%), while for an America Mineiro win it was 0-1 (5.65%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Fortaleza would win this match.
-1.43) 
0.24) 
