Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genoa win with a probability of 66.68%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for Ascoli had a probability of 12.22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genoa win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.98%) and 2-1 (9.19%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.75%), while for an Ascoli win it was 0-1 (5.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genoa would win this match.
3.42) 
-1.54) 
