SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 27.26% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.36%) and 0-2 (8.35%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (7.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gimnasia | Draw | River Plate |
27.26% ( 0.14) | 25.16% ( 0.15) | 47.58% ( -0.29) |
| Both teams to score 53.3% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 50.28% ( -0.53) | 49.72% ( 0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.27% ( -0.47) | 71.73% ( 0.47) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.4% ( -0.17) | 32.6% ( 0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.86% ( -0.19) | 69.14% ( 0.19) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.08% ( -0.34) | 20.92% ( 0.34) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.35% ( -0.53) | 53.65% ( 0.53) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gimnasia | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 7.64% ( 0.13) 2-1 @ 6.7% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.28% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.96% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 1.6% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.56% Total : 27.26% | 1-1 @ 11.95% ( 0.07) 0-0 @ 6.82% ( 0.15)2-2 @ 5.24% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.02% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.15% | 0-1 @ 10.66% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 9.36% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 8.35% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 4.88% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 4.35% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.73% ( -0.05)1-4 @ 1.91% ( -0.05)0-4 @ 1.7% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.57% Total : 47.57% |
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