SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Defensa y Justicia | 12 | 7 | 22 |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 12 | 4 | 20 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 73.84%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 9.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.85%) and 3-0 (10.31%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.99%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (3.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| River Plate | Draw | Gimnasia |
73.84% ( 1.36) | 16.83% ( -0.6) | 9.33% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 44.04% ( -0.94) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.77% ( 0.4) | 43.23% ( -0.4) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.37% ( 0.4) | 65.63% ( -0.39) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.83% ( 0.45) | 10.17% ( -0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.58% ( 1.02) | 33.42% ( -1.02) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 49.03% ( -1.3) | 50.97% ( 1.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.68% ( -0.89) | 85.32% ( 0.89) |
| Score Analysis |
| River Plate | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 2-0 @ 13.54% ( 0.28) 1-0 @ 11.85% ( 0.02)3-0 @ 10.31% ( 0.4)2-1 @ 9.13% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 6.95% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 5.9% ( 0.34)4-1 @ 3.97% ( 0.09)5-0 @ 2.7% ( 0.2)3-2 @ 2.34% ( -0.08)5-1 @ 1.82% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.34% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.1)Other @ 2.97% Total : 73.83% | 1-1 @ 7.99% ( -0.29) 0-0 @ 5.19% ( -0.09)2-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.17)Other @ 0.58% Total : 16.83% | 0-1 @ 3.49% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 2.69% ( -0.21)0-2 @ 1.18% ( -0.12)Other @ 1.97% Total : 9.34% |
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