SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 37.11%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 33.34% and a draw had a probability of 29.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.98%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.47%) and 2-0 (7.21%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 0-1 (12.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.44%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Gimnasia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Gimnasia | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
37.11% ( -1.04) | 29.54% ( 0.21) | 33.34% ( 0.83) |
| Both teams to score 43.25% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 36.28% ( -0.58) | 63.72% ( 0.57) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 17.01% ( -0.41) | 82.99% ( 0.41) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.05% ( -0.95) | 32.95% ( 0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.47% ( -1.07) | 69.53% ( 1.07) |
| Velez Sarsfield Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.51% ( 0.28) | 35.49% ( -0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 27.74% ( 0.29) | 72.25% ( -0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Gimnasia | Draw | Velez Sarsfield |
| 1-0 @ 12.98% ( -0.06) 2-1 @ 7.47% ( -0.17)2-0 @ 7.21% ( -0.22)3-1 @ 2.76% ( -0.14)3-0 @ 2.67% ( -0.16)3-2 @ 1.43% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.6% Total : 37.11% | 1-1 @ 13.44% ( 0.04) 0-0 @ 11.69% ( 0.25)2-2 @ 3.87% ( -0.06)Other @ 0.53% Total : 29.53% | 0-1 @ 12.11% ( 0.35) 1-2 @ 6.97% ( 0.07)0-2 @ 6.28% ( 0.23)1-3 @ 2.41% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.09)2-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.08% Total : 33.34% |
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