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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 39.97%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 38.76% and a draw had a probability of 21.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 7.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (4.94%) and 2-3 (4.66%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 2-1 (7.6%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 4.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
38.76% ( -0.88) | 21.27% ( -0.03) | 39.97% ( 0.9) |
| Both teams to score 72.38% ( 0.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 73.19% ( 0.12) | 26.8% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.76% ( 0.15) | 47.24% ( -0.16) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.85% ( -0.29) | 15.15% ( 0.28) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 56.26% ( -0.54) | 43.73% ( 0.53) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.3% ( 0.39) | 14.69% ( -0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.13% ( 0.74) | 42.86% ( -0.75) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heerenveen | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 7.6% ( -0.1) 3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 4.59% ( -0.04)1-0 @ 4.2% ( -0.07)2-0 @ 3.96% ( -0.11)3-0 @ 2.49% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.26% ( -0.08)4-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.04)4-3 @ 1.38% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.15% Total : 38.76% | 1-1 @ 8.05% ( -0.03) 2-2 @ 7.29% ( 0)3-3 @ 2.93% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 2.23% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.77% Total : 21.27% | 1-2 @ 7.72% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 4.94% ( 0.12)2-3 @ 4.66% ( 0.07)0-1 @ 4.27% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.08)0-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.09)1-4 @ 2.37% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 2.24% ( 0.06)3-4 @ 1.41% ( 0.02)0-4 @ 1.26% ( 0.06)1-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.05)Other @ 3.49% Total : 39.97% |
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