SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chelsea win with a probability of 50.61%. A win for Heidenheim had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chelsea win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.24%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Heidenheim win was 2-1 (6.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.83%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Chelsea would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heidenheim | Draw | Chelsea |
27.18% ( -0.24) | 22.21% ( 0.04) | 50.61% ( 0.2) |
| Both teams to score 63.4% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.61% ( -0.38) | 36.38% ( 0.38) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.48% ( -0.42) | 58.52% ( 0.41) |
| Heidenheim Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.3% ( -0.36) | 25.7% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.38% ( -0.49) | 60.62% ( 0.49) |
| Chelsea Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.33% ( -0.07) | 14.67% ( 0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.17% ( -0.13) | 42.82% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heidenheim | Draw | Chelsea |
| 2-1 @ 6.68% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 5.12% ( 0.04)2-0 @ 3.48% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.03% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.9% ( -0.05)3-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.38% Total : 27.18% | 1-1 @ 9.83% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 6.41% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 3.77% ( 0.07)3-3 @ 1.86% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.34% Total : 22.21% | 1-2 @ 9.44% ( 0.03) 0-1 @ 7.24% ( 0.12)0-2 @ 6.94% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 6.04% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 4.44% ( 0.05)2-3 @ 4.1% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.9% ( -0)0-4 @ 2.13% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.97% ( -0.02)1-5 @ 1.11% ( -0)Other @ 4.3% Total : 50.61% |
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