Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shanghai Shenhua win with a probability of 40.56%. A win for Henan had a probability of 32.15% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shanghai Shenhua win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.43%) and 0-2 (7.45%). The likeliest Henan win was 1-0 (9.88%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shanghai Shenhua would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.04) 
