SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 54.74%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 25.55% and a draw had a probability of 19.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (6.71%) and 0-2 (5.53%). The likeliest Heracles win was 2-1 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (7.44%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Heracles | Draw | Ajax |
25.55% ( 0.73) | 19.71% ( 0.18) | 54.74% ( -0.91) |
| Both teams to score 71.33% ( 0.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 74.51% ( -0.15) | 25.49% ( 0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 54.45% ( -0.2) | 45.56% ( 0.2) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.07% ( 0.38) | 20.94% ( -0.37) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 46.33% ( 0.58) | 53.67% ( -0.58) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.22% ( -0.26) | 9.78% ( 0.27) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 67.48% ( -0.62) | 32.52% ( 0.63) |
| Score Analysis |
| Heracles | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.12) 3-2 @ 3.53% ( 0.07)1-0 @ 3.2% ( 0.07)3-1 @ 3.03% ( 0.1)2-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 1.31% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1.19% ( 0.05)4-3 @ 1.07% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.53% Total : 25.55% | 1-1 @ 7.44% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.77% ( 0.06)3-3 @ 2.73% ( 0.02)0-0 @ 2.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.72% Total : 19.71% | 1-2 @ 8.65% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 6.71% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 5.53% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 5.24% ( -0.01)0-1 @ 4.76% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 4.29% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 3.9% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 3.05% ( -0.04)0-4 @ 2.49% ( -0.1)1-5 @ 1.81% ( -0.07)3-4 @ 1.59% ( -0)2-5 @ 1.42% ( -0.04)0-5 @ 1.16% ( -0.06)Other @ 4.15% Total : 54.74% |
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