While Union Berlin have struggled in front of goal, their defensive record is outstanding, and it would not be surprising if they limited Holstein Kiel's opportunities in the final third.
Although the hosts have been in somewhat better form of late, it is difficult to see how they avoid defeat given their poor home record and their defensive frailty.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union Berlin win with a probability of 44.11%. A win for Holstein Kiel had a probability of 30.38% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union Berlin win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.07%) and 0-2 (7.56%). The likeliest Holstein Kiel win was 1-0 (8.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union Berlin would win this match.
-0.43) 
0.46) 
