Mainz come into this season with great momentum and we expect that to bear fruit on Saturday at home as they look to continue their fine league form. Both teams also struggled for goals last season and it would be difficult to envisage a high-scoring encounter here, but we expect the home side to narrowly come away with all three points. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mainz 05 win with a probability of 51.39%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Union Berlin had a probability of 23.06%.

The most likely scoreline for a Mainz 05 win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (9.37%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.08%), while for a Union Berlin win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.

Result
Mainz 05	Draw	Union Berlin
51.39% ( -0.2)	25.54% ( 0.14)	23.06% ( 0.05)

Both teams to score 48.23% (

-0.33)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

45.56% (

-0.47)

54.44% (

0.47)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

24.19% (

-0.4)

75.8% (

0.39)

Mainz 05 Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

78.79% (

-0.27)

21.21% (

0.27)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

45.9% (

-0.42)

54.1% (

0.42)

Union Berlin Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.21% (

-0.21)

38.79% (

0.21)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.48% (

-0.2)

75.52% (

0.2)

Score Analysis

Mainz 05 51.39%

Union Berlin 23.06%

Draw 25.54%

Mainz 05	Draw	Union Berlin
1-0 @ 12.75% ( 0.13) 2-0 @ 9.89% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 9.37% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 5.11% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 4.84% ( -0.06) 3-2 @ 2.29% ( -0.04) 4-0 @ 1.98% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.88% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.27% Total : 51.39%	1-1 @ 12.08% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 8.23% ( 0.15) 2-2 @ 4.44% ( -0.04) Other @ 0.79% Total : 25.54%	0-1 @ 7.79% ( 0.1) 1-2 @ 5.72% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.4% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 1.49% Total : 23.06%