SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Romania | 10 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Switzerland | 10 | 11 | 17 |
| 3 | Israel | 10 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Belarus | 10 | -5 | 12 |
| 5 | Kosovo | 10 | 0 | 11 |
| 6 | Andorra | 10 | -17 | 2 |
| Current Group J Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 10 | 34 | 30 |
| 2 | Slovakia | 10 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Luxembourg | 10 | -6 | 17 |
| 4 | Iceland | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Bosnia-Herzegovina | 10 | -11 | 9 |
| 6 | Liechtenstein | 10 | -27 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Israel win with a probability of 49.94%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 26.22% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Israel win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.51%) and 2-0 (8.15%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-2 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.2%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Israel | Draw | Iceland |
49.94% ( 0.9) | 23.84% ( -0.2) | 26.22% ( -0.7) |
| Both teams to score 56.72% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.2% ( 0.34) | 44.8% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.84% ( 0.33) | 67.16% ( -0.33) |
| Israel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.98% ( 0.48) | 18.02% ( -0.48) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.1% ( 0.82) | 48.9% ( -0.82) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.19% ( -0.36) | 30.81% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.92% ( -0.42) | 67.08% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Israel | Draw | Iceland |
| 2-1 @ 9.6% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 9.51% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.15% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 5.48% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 3.23% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 2.35% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 1.38% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.57% Total : 49.94% | 1-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.1) 2-2 @ 5.65% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 5.55% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.27% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 23.84% | 1-2 @ 6.59% ( -0.13) 0-1 @ 6.54% ( -0.16)0-2 @ 3.85% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 2.59% ( -0.08)2-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.07)Other @ 2.93% Total : 26.22% |
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