Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 40.67%. A win for ADO Den Haag had a probability of 36.06% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.6%) and 2-0 (5.51%). The likeliest ADO Den Haag win was 1-2 (8.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.3%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.
0.53) 
-0.03) 
